Voluntary Medical Male Circumcisions for HIV Prevention - 13 Countries in Eastern and Southern Africa, 2017-2021.

In 2007, voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) was endorsed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS after it was found to be associated with approximately a 60% reduction in the risk for female-to-male transmission of HIV (1). As a result of this endorsement, the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), through partnerships with U.S. government agencies, including CDC, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Agency for International Development, started supporting VMMCs performed in prioritized countries in southern and eastern Africa. During 2010-2016, CDC supported 5,880,372 VMMCs in 12 countries (2,3). During 2017-2021, CDC supported 8,497,297 VMMCs performed in 13 countries. In 2020, the number of VMMCs performed declined 31.8% compared with the number in 2019, primarily because of COVID-19-related disruptions to VMMC service delivery. PEPFAR 2017-2021 Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting data were used to provide an update and describe CDC's contribution to the scale-up of the VMMC program, which is important to meeting the 2025 Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) target of 90% of males aged 15-59 years having access to VMMC services in prioritized countries to help end the AIDS epidemic by 2030 (4).

Applying mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related VMMC service disruptions on new HIV infections in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems with knock on effects on diagnosis, treatment, and care. To mitigate the impact, the government of Zimbabwe enforced a strict lockdown beginning 30 March 2020 which ran intermittently until early 2021. In this period, the Ministry of Health and Childcare strategically prioritized delivery of services leading to partial and full suspension of services considered non-essential, including HIV prevention. As a result, Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) services were disrupted leading to an 80% decline in circumcisions conducted in 2020. Given the efficacy of VMMC, we quantified the potential effects of VMMC service disruption on new HIV infections in Zimbabwe. METHODS: We applied the GOALS model to evaluate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on reducing new HIV infections over 30-years. GOALS is an HIV simulation model that estimates number of new HIV infections based on sexual behaviours of population groups. The model is parameterized based on national surveys and HIV program data. We hypothesized three coverage scenarios by 2030: scenario I - pre-COVID trajectory: 80% VMMC coverage; Scenario II - marginal COVID-19 impact: 60% VMMC coverage, and scenario III - severe COVID-19 impact: 45% VMMC coverage. VMMC coverage between 2020 and 2030 was linearly interpolated to attain the estimated coverage and then held constant from 2030 to 2050, and discounted outcomes at 3%. RESULTS: Compared to the baseline scenario I, in scenario II, we estimated that the disruption of VMMC services would generate an average of 200 (176-224) additional new infections per year and 7,200 new HIV infections over the next 30 years. For scenario III, we estimated an average of 413 (389-437) additional new HIV infections per year and 15,000 new HIV infections over the next 30 years. The disruption of VMMC services could generate additional future HIV treatment costs ranging from $27 million to $55 million dollars across scenarios II and III, respectively. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 disruptions destabilized delivery of VMMC services which could contribute to an additional 7,200 new infections over the next 30 years. Unless mitigated, these disruptions could derail the national goals of reducing new infections by 2030.

Transitioning a digital health innovation from research to routine practice: Two-way texting for male circumcision follow-up in Zimbabwe.

Adult medical male circumcision (MC) is safe: global notifiable adverse event (AE) rates average below 2.0%. With Zimbabwe's shortage of health care workers (HCWs) compounded by COVID-19 constraints, two-way text-based (2wT) MC follow-up may be advantageous over routinely scheduled in-person reviews. A 2019 randomized control trial (RCT) found 2wT to be safe and efficient for MC follow-up. As few digital health interventions successfully transition from RCT to scale, we detail the 2wT scale-up approach from RCT to routine MC practice comparing MC safety and efficiency outcomes. After the RCT, 2wT transitioned from a site-based (centralized) system to hub-and-spoke model for scale-up where one nurse triaged all 2wT patients, referring patients in need to their local clinic. No post-operative visits were required with 2wT. Routine patients were expected to attend at least one post-operative review. We compare 1) AEs and in-person visits between 2wT men from RCT and routine MC service delivery; and 2) 2wT-based and routine follow-up among adults during the 2wT scale-up period, January to October 2021. During scale-up period, 5084 of 17417 adult MC patients (29%) opted into 2wT. Of the 5084, 0.08% (95% CI: 0.03, 2.0) had an AE and 71.0% (95% CI: 69.7, 72.2) responded to ≥1 daily SMS, a significant decrease from the 1.9% AE rate (95% CI: 0.7, 3.6; p<0.001) and 92.5% response rate (95% CI: 89.0, 94.6; p<0.001) from 2wT RCT men. During scale-up, AE rates did not differ between routine (0.03%; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.08) and 2wT (p = 0.248) groups. Of 5084 2wT men, 630 (12.4%) received telehealth reassurance, wound care reminders, and hygiene advice via 2wT; 64 (19.7%) were referred for care of which 50% had visits. Similar to RCT outcomes, routine 2wT was safe and provided clear efficiency advantages over in-person follow-up. 2wT reduced unnecessary patient-provider contact for COVID-19 infection prevention. Rural network coverage, provider hesitancy, and the slow pace of MC guideline changes slowed 2wT expansion. However, immediate 2wT benefits for MC programs and potential benefits of 2wT-based telehealth for other health contexts outweigh limitations.